SLSUN: The Horn of Africa is one of the most critical regions in global geopolitics, interlinking the most significant maritime routes, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean.
This has turned it, especially over the last period of time, into a hot spot for international competition, driven by China’s rising economic and military presence. Within this dynamic geopolitical landscape, Somaliland is an underutilized asset, offering a set of strategic opportunities that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United States, and Ethiopia cannot afford to overlook.
In direct contrast to the general instability characterizing the region, Somaliland has maintained a stable and democratic governance model since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991.
Notwithstanding a lack of formal international recognition, Somaliland has held peaceful elections, established functional institutions, and provided an environment of security and order. Somaliland recognition is a matter not of symbolism but one that is essentially geopolitical, with far-reaching ramifications for East Africa and the Red Sea corridor.
Recognition of Somaliland could offer several strategic benefits.
Securing Strategic Sea Routes
Somaliland borders the Gulf of Aden, one of the busiest sea routes in the world, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Piracy and regional instability pose a threat to world trade. Somaliland offers a stable partner for improving maritime security. International recognition would pave the way for closer cooperation in anti-piracy missions, ensuring the free flow of goods and improving trade facilitation.
Counterbalancing Chinese Influence
Chinese dominance in Africa under the leadership of the BRI features various endeavors, including a military outpost in Djibouti and serious investments in key infrastructure. It is to this that the recognition of Somaliland offers a key opportunity for counterbalancing Beijing’s heft in the Horn. Moreover, Somaliland’s strategic location may provide other military and logistical functions, serving as a counterbalance to growing Chinese authoritarianism in that region.
Improving Regional Stability
In a region torn apart by conflict and instability, Somaliland’s stability is a rare and precious commodity. Recognition would give Ethiopia access to alternative trade routes via the Berbera Port, thereby reducing reliance on Djibouti and encouraging economic growth and diversification. For the UAE, with substantial investments in Berbera, it would mean a far stronger and more reliable partner to safeguard its interests in the Red Sea. This will also help to avert destabilizing forces exploiting the status of Somaliland being unrecognized.
Democratization of Values
Somaliland has emerged as one of the very few examples of functional democratic governance in a region where such practices are rare. International recognition would send a powerful message in support of democracy, self-determination, and the rule of law, reinforcing global principles of stability. For the United States, recognizing Somaliland aligns with its broader foreign policy goals of supporting stable and democratic nations while strengthening its presence in the Horn of Africa.
The Cost of Inaction
Failure to recognize Somaliland will cede strategic ground to China and other rising powers that seek to exploit the region’s vulnerabilities. Any delayed recognition could leave the Western powers and their allies out of the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. The strategic salience of Somaliland is, therefore, calling for firm action in securing the long-term global interests within this critical region.
Call to Action
It is an issue of strategic necessity for countries like the UAE, the United States, and Ethiopia. By formalizing its status, these nations will have a partner in whom they can trust to promote maritime security, regional stability, and balance China’s influence.
Recognizing Somaliland is not only a question of regional stability but also about opening up new platforms for partnership, security collaboration, and economic growth. Somaliland represents an important missing piece of the geopolitical puzzle in East Africa. Originally published by Addisstandard
The author Adam Daud Ahmed is a political and security analyst in the Horn of Africa.
