Somalilandsun: Somalia now ranks sixth among the world’s countries in vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, after Guinea-Bissau, Micronesia, Niger, the Solomon Islands and Chad. Weak governance and widespread insecurity compound the problem.1 From late 2020 onward, an historic drought in the Horn of Africa caused huge distress among Somalia’s population. Parts of the country’s southern and central regions saw almost three consecutive years of poor rains between late 2020 and 2023.
Though rainfall gradually improved, floods in November 2023 displaced more than half a million people.It will take the country years to recover from these weather shocks.
A displaced woman waits for assistance in a camp in Dollow, Somalia. 10 September 2022. CRISIS GROUP / Nazanine Moshiri
Few countries are more exposed to the ill effects of climate change than Somalia. Insecurity compounds the problem, with the Al-Shabaab insurgency exploiting drought conditions as a means of social control. Mogadishu needs help in dealing with the nexus of armed conflict and weather shocks.
What’s new? Somalia went through a prolonged, extreme drought between 2020 and 2023 that caused a humanitarian emergency and fuelled conflict with the Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. Local resentment of the group’s harsh methods during severe water shortages eventually led to a military offensive that put the insurgents on the back foot.
Why does it matter? In Somalia, climate change and conflict are increasingly intertwined. Al-Shabaab uses access to water and other natural resources to levy taxes and fees on herders and farmers, as well as to punish communities that resist its control. But it has also proven persuadable by social pressure during climate shocks.
What should be done? Somalia urgently needs to build infrastructure to withstand future extreme weather more effectively. While funds are trickling in, Mogadishu needs help with adaptation measures. Given the country’s immense needs, the government should consider making climate resilience a central part of its efforts to engage Al-Shabaab in talks.
Ever more frequent and severe droughts and floods are killing and displacing people in Somalia, with important implications for the conflict between the government and the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab. Amid the country’s devastating drought from 2020 to 2023, Al-Shabaab imposed harsh constraints on aid to areas under its control – and deliberately destroyed water infrastructure – stirring clan resentment. Outrage at the group’s actions helped drive a military campaign, beginning in 2022, that pushed the insurgents out of parts of central Somalia. That offensive has since stalled, however, leaving Al-Shabaab in charge of swathes of territory. Meanwhile, the country is struggling to get the funds and technical support it needs to prepare for weather shocks, water shortages and the like. With donor backing, the government should redouble efforts to strengthen the country’s climate resilience, provide services and water infrastructure in recaptured territory, and, where necessary, reconsider its ban on contact with Al-Shabaab so that communities can negotiate access to humanitarian relief and reliable water supply.
Somalia is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Serious weather shocks are hitting more often, harming livelihoods and economic growth. The 2020-2023 drought and later flooding highlighted the plight of millions of Somalis who rely on seasonal rains to grow crops or raise cattle. In the years to come, Somalis will continue to battle rising temperatures, erratic precipitation and biodiversity loss linked to climate change and deforestation.
Neither drought nor climate change created Al-Shabaab or caused Somalia’s instability, but both are now reshaping the conflict. From its origins as the enforcement wing of the Islamic Courts Union, a group of clerics who brought relative order to much of south-central Somalia after the central state collapsed in 1991, Al-Shabaab has positioned itself as an insurgency and the de facto governing authority in areas under its control. Over the years, overstretched Somali and partner forces have hunkered down in urban locales, while Al-Shabaab has established firm footholds in rural areas, above all in the south and centre of the country, where it has staged attacks on African Union forces, Somali troops and public officials.
As these rural areas succumb to the effects of climate change, Al-Shabaab has sought to capitalise on droughts by using access to water as a means of putting pressure on local people. But recent events have shown that this strategy can backfire. Frustration with Al-Shabaab’s demands for money and recruits, as well as its violent collective punishment for non-compliance during the drought, fuelled an uprising by clan militias, with which the Somali federal government allied to launch an offensive in August 2022. A number of desperate residents fled areas under Al-Shabaab’s control, bringing the group into discredit, causing its revenues to fall and heightening its exposure to attack from land and air.
In response to the uprising, Al-Shabaab has made half-hearted efforts to deal with the harmful effects of climate change, on occasion building water infrastructure in a bid to curb local discontent. It has also taken rudimentary measures to protect the environment, like digging irrigation canals and reservoirs, banning logging and planting trees.
Despite initial gains, the offensive has been disappointing. The federal government is struggling to persuade locals in areas recaptured from Al-Shabaab that it can serve them better. With the help of international partners, it will have to step up local service delivery and look for ways to curb Al-Shabaab attacks, especially those on supply routes for humanitarian aid.
Read the full International Crisis Group report Titled fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones
