Somalilandsun: Somalia is collapsing – and Somaliland presents a strategic opportunity for Israel l.
This is according to The Israel- Africa Relations Institute that leads a range of international activities aimed at establishing strong diplomatic, economic, and technological bridges between the State of Israel and the countries of the African continent.
The Tel Aviv body states that
Somalia’s situation is critical. In focus, the danger of Mogadishu falling to al-Shabab, the Sunni Islamist terrorist organization affiliated with
Al-Qaeda, which operates mainly in Somalia and the Horn of Africa. This is a significant regional development that could destabilize East Africa, complicate the US fight against terrorism (especially the campaign against the Houthis), change Turkey’s status in the region, and create significant challenges and threats to Israel. Israel needs to rethink its position in the African arena and prepare for renewed security, intelligence, and diplomatic cooperation – primarily with Somaliland, along with Ethiopia and Kenya.
Key recommendations:
A. In cooperation with the US and the UAE, strengthen pro-Western elements in the Red Sea and East Africa (Somaliland, Kenya, and Ethiopia).
B. In the meantime, actively work to promote American recognition of Somaliland’s independence; given the delay, Israeli public recognition of Somaliland should be considered (subject to receiving concessions from Somaliland). At the same time, create security ties and intelligence, in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, with Somaliland. Including the deployment of additional Israeli systems in the context of fighting the Houthis.
C. To emphasize to the Americans the dissatisfaction with Turkey’s helplessness against al-Shabaab and to express concern that Turkey may strengthen Islamist elements in the region (perhaps even in cooperation with Iran).
Current situation (as of April 17)
The security situation in Somalia is deteriorating rapidly. The terrorist organization al-Shabaab controls most of the roads leading to the capital Mogadishu – in practice, the city is under siege. The organization is even increasing its activity within the city itself, which is reflected in the increase in the number of attacks in the city in recent times.
On April 16, with precise timing and a coordinated move, al-Shabaab managed to take control of the largest base of the Somali army outside Mogadishu and other strategic sites in the Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions. This is a real collapse of the capital’s defensive ring. The next day (April 17), another attack was launched against a base in the southwest of the country – a move that suggests an effort to capture the capital similar to Al-Shabaab’s conquest campaign in 2006.
While the ground is burning, the Somali president is visiting Turkey and the prime minister is busy making political declarations in a disputed region between Somalia and Somaliland. The US, which has been conducting a bombing campaign against ISIS in Puntland in recent weeks, announced the cessation of funding for the peacekeeping force. As of now, the US has not yet responded officially or militarily to the developments around Mogadishu. The US military is focusing its activities against the ISIS branch in Somalia, located in Puntland.
Two immediate effects of the recent developments are already being felt:
1. Evacuation of foreign missions from Mogadishu in light of Al-Shabaab’s advance towards the city, with concerns about a Kabul or Damascus-style scenario in which a chaotic and hasty evacuation from the city was conducted (or experienced) and the systemic collapse of the local government. Our investigation shows that, unlike other countries, Turkey is not taking action to evacuate its missions or representatives from the country.
2. Somaliland suspended negotiations with Somalia and there has been a distancing between the parties
