Somalilandsun: The Horn of Africa region appears to be embroiled in a Cold War, that has become overt following the collapse of the TPLF regional regime of Tigray in Ethiopia.
This short analysis explores the ongoing political realignments and fallouts within the Horn of Africa as a result of Ethiopia prime Minister’s Operation restore Law and Order in the Tigray region that has ended with the capture of regional capital Mekelle by federal troops.
To put this is in context a few arguments below
Ethiopia and South Sudan
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears to be highly suspicious of South Sudan, which recently hosted in the capital Juba an Egyptian Delegation led by president Al Sisi , amid a bitter standoff between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD
Although later denied, Ethiopia ordered the South Sudanese ambassador Addis Ababa out of the country as she, Ethiopia, simultaneously recalled her Envoy from Juba
In a speech to parliament, immediately after the Egyptian visit , Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed indirectly insulted South Sudan and its leaders.
Kenya and Somalia
Somalia and Kenya are also in dispute in an explosive diplomatic spat, that has seen Somalia recall it’s ambassador from Nairobi, while ordering the Kenyan Ambassador out of Mogadishu.
Somalia and Kenya formerly seen as close pals especially in the war against Al-Shabaab that resulted in Nairobi dispatching troops to Jubaland has been in the offing since a dispute over onshore oil, and maritime boundaries, a case now awaiting arbitration at the international court.
Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who appears to be adaptive to any changes in the region, recently appointed Yusuf Garaad Omar Ahmed as Somalia’s Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
This appointment came a few days after president Farmajo fired his foreign affairs minister Ahmed Isse Awed, after he recommended talks to end the conflict between the TPLF and the Ethiopian central government, which angered Ethiopia.
President Ismail Omar Guelleh, an expert on Horn of Africa politics, said that although he was not part of the changes in the region, in a recent speech he supported Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in the TPLF war, saying Abiy Ahmed must stamp his authority by annihilating TPLF.
Prior to ascension of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister the Djiboutian President had close ties to the former Ethiopia federal government TPLF led administration.
This political cahoot between the two was at a time while the TPLF was involved in a plot to isolate the Eritrean president, a bitter foe of both President Gelle and the TPLF command.
Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has denied that President Yoweri Museveni, who sees himself as the leader of the East African Community, will start mediating between him and the TPLF leadership, saying that Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is not upset with Abiy Ahmed’s conduct.
Somaliland appears to be quietly watching the situation around it, and there are no known plans for the Government to address the situation in the region.
Somaliland Foreign Affairs Minister Yassin Faratoon, who was recently interviewed by the Geeska Afrika newspaper, said he was not ready to comment on the situation in the region, meaning that Somaliland was neutral.
But following announcement that the U.S will pull it’s 700 troops out of Somalia, the administration in Hargeisa was quick in its support , terming it as a viable move that shall see to it that countries in the region start depending on the selves for security.
Similarly the Somaliland government was very vehement in her condemnation to Somalia’s appointment of an Envoy to the three regional blocks terming it as an infringement on its sovereignty.