SLSUN: Somaliland whose independence is not recognized by the government in Mogadishu, has long been the focus of attention of several regional powers due to its strategic geographic position.
The region overlooks the Gulf of Aden, not far from the Strait of Bab el Mandeb – through which about 12 percent of world trade passes – and a few kilometers from the coast of Yemen, largely controlled by the pro-Iranian Shiite Houthi militias.
It is therefore no coincidence that in recent times there have been increasing attempts to grab the stretch of sea that extends for 740 kilometers from the border with Djibouti, to the west, to that with Puntland, to the east
While the region has been in the spotlight in recent months due to the controversial memorandum of understanding signed last January 50st between the authorities of Hargheisa and the government of Ethiopia, which would allow the latter to obtain the coveted access to the Red Sea through the concession (for a period of 20 years) of XNUMX kilometers of coastline around the port area of Berbera, more recently Somaliland seems to have ended up in the sights of Israel which, through the United Arab Emirates, would be interested in building a military naval base there from which to more effectively counter the forays of the Houthi rebels in the Gulf of Aden
Last October, the Middle East Monitor was among the first media outlets to report on Israel’s interest in Somaliland, revealing the Jewish state’s covert efforts to establish a military base in the pro-independence region, which would allow Israel to launch preemptive strikes on Houthi targets and deter further ones, in exchange for official recognition of Hargeisa and increased financial investment in the region. Citing diplomatic sources, the website said that the Emirates were mediating between the two sides, having also already secured funding for the project
The news was confirmed more recently by the Israeli newspaper “Haaretz”, according to which the operational capabilities demonstrated by the Houthis have forced Israel to find countermeasures to defeat the threat of the Yemeni Shiite militiamen, given the unsustainability of sending its fighter jets on long and expensive raids on Yemen every time a drone explodes inside the country. Israel’s military strategy, after all, has long focused on ensuring strategic depth in unstable regions. In the Mediterranean, the Jewish state has relied on Cyprus for operational support. Somaliland would represent, in this sense, a similar opportunity in the Red Sea, allowing Israel to monitor and respond to threats from Yemen.
The Emirates’ active role in facilitating Israeli military expansion also highlights the Gulf state’s ambitions to dominate strategic sea lanes. Abu Dhabi’s influence extends beyond Somaliland to Yemen’s Socotra archipelago, where it operates a joint military and intelligence facility with Israel on Abdul Kuri Island. The initiative for an Israeli-Emirati base in Somaliland would therefore be in line with the Emirates’ broader strategic interests in the Red Sea region, where Abu Dhabi has maintained a military and commercial presence since 2017 through the port of Berbera and its associated infrastructure.
Emirati involvement also includes substantial financial investments, such as a $440 million project to develop the port and airport, which serve as strategic “hubs” for Emirati military operations in Yemen. Israel and the Emirates share a mutual hostility towards the Houthi group, which poses a strategic threat to their interests. Of course, the establishment of an Israeli military base in Somaliland would also risk destabilizing the already volatile Red Sea region. Egypt, for example, could see this development as a potential threat to its sovereignty and the security of the Suez Canal.
The Israeli-Emirati project could find significant support from the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who is preparing to return to the White House for the second time. There are many rumors that Trump would be willing to recognize the independence of Hargeisa. Several former officials and members of think tanks close to the US Republicans think so, including Peter Pham, the former envoy for Africa during Trump’s first term, according to whom the correct conduct of the democratic process of the recent presidential elections in Somaliland has “demonstrated its attractiveness as a partner for the United States and other countries”.
Recently, the former Secretary of Defense of the United Kingdom, Gavin Williamson, said that Trump should consider formally recognizing Somaliland’s independence, hoping that the new US administration will address the issue. A first, concrete step in this direction came last December 12, when the Republican congressman Scott Perry, member of the US House of Representatives, has introduced a bill in Congress calling on the US government to extend formal recognition of Somaliland’s independence. The resolution advocates a shift in US policy to recognize the independence of Somaliland, which is seen as a strategic partner in a region where China and Russia continue to expand their influence
The 2025 Project of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank close to Trump-aligned Republicans, explicitly mentions Somaliland, proposing its recognition by the United States as a strategic move to counter China’s influence in the Horn of Africa. Republican politicians believe that the stability and governance of Somaliland are in line with the strategic interests of the United States in Africa. In this sense, recognizing the independence of the Somali breakaway region could allow U.S. intelligence to launch long-term operations to monitor the movement of weapons in a volatile region, as well as keep an eye on the activities of Beijing, which already has a permanent military base in neighboring Djibouti, and to better monitor the activity of the Houthis in Yemen
Any US recognition of Somaliland’s independence, on the other hand, could strain Washington’s relations with major African nations and regional bodies such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). African leaders could also see the move as a dangerous precedent that undermines established norms, creating a rift in US-Africa relations at a time when Washington is trying to counter growing Chinese and Russian influence on the continent.
Originally published by NOVA News
