Israel’s election has arrived, and the results of the public vote were announced on the evening of the 28th. Judging by the political atmosphere and the opposition’s rhetoric, the election appeared to be a direct challenge to Likud and Netanyahu, who were seen as fighting for their political survival.
Many Somalis are watching this election closely, because Israel has recognized Somaliland, and many believe that if Netanyahu leaves office, that recognition could be withdrawn. But is that true, or merely an assumption? If Netanyahu falls and his coalition is dismantled, what would it mean for the recognition Somaliland received from Israel on 26 December 2025?
The short answer is: no. Israel’s election and any change of leadership would have little effect on its foreign policy—particularly on the Somaliland issue, which will not be reversed simply because Benjamin Netanyahu leaves power. Several points support this conclusion:
The Somaliland recognition file is held by Mossad. The file concerning Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is managed by the Mossad intelligence agency, which handles foreign-affairs matters. If you recall, on 26 December—when Netanyahu announced recognition of Somaliland—Mossad Director David Barnea was in the room, directly overseeing the recognition process. Since then, the file has remained within Mossad’s offices.
Israel’s relationship with Somaliland is not a sudden development. It is the result of a long-term strategic process. The pressures surrounding the Red Sea and the ongoing rivalry with Turkey remain in place; Israel cannot simply reverse course on them.
Incoming Israeli leaders do not normally disrupt foreign-policy relationships unless circumstances change materially. Therefore, a new leadership is unlikely to abandon established policies or pursue radically different courses simply for the sake of change.
Gadi Eisenkot, the likely incoming leader, is a military-and-politics figure who is strategically more hardline than Netanyahu. He is committed to securing new strategic footholds where previous governments may have lost ground.
Important note: The results and the coalition-building process are not yet clear, so no firm prediction can be made about the outcome of Israel’s election. If you see a bloc with 55 seats, do not assume it has won; it may merely be the larger coalition. A party or bloc needs 61 seats to form a government; anything below that is insufficient.
